Leading Bitcoin Analysts
Willy Woo is one of the most respected on-chain analysts in the Bitcoin space. He's developed numerous proprietary metrics and has been analysing Bitcoin data since the early days. His work focuses on understanding investor behaviour through blockchain data.
Key Contributions
- • NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions)
- • Supply Shock models
- • Demand/supply on-chain metrics
- • Capital flow analysis
Follow For
- • Market cycle analysis
- • Whale behaviour insights
- • Long-term investor trends
- • Data-driven market commentary
PlanB is the anonymous analyst who created the famous Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which attempts to predict Bitcoin's price based on its scarcity relative to production rate. While controversial and debated, the model has generated significant discussion about Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
Key Contributions
- • Stock-to-Flow model
- • S2F Cross-Asset model (S2FX)
- • Scarcity-based valuation framework
- • Halving cycle analysis
⚠️ Important Note
The S2F model has faced criticism for potentially being a "spurious correlation." Use it as one data point among many, not as a price prediction tool.
Lyn Alden brings a macroeconomic perspective to Bitcoin analysis. As the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, she examines Bitcoin within the context of global monetary policy, debt cycles, and fiscal trends. Her work helps bridge traditional finance and Bitcoin.
Known For
- • Macro-Bitcoin correlation analysis
- • Global liquidity cycle research
- • Long-form investment research
- • Accessible explanations for newcomers
Best For
- • Understanding Bitcoin in macro context
- • Long-term investment thesis
- • Traditional finance perspective
Will Clemente rose to prominence as a young on-chain analyst focusing on supply dynamics and accumulation patterns. He's known for making complex on-chain data accessible and for his work on supply shock metrics.
Focus Areas
- • Supply shock indicators
- • Illiquid supply analysis
- • Accumulation trend tracking
- • Exchange flow analysis
Adam Back is one of the few people cited in Satoshi's Bitcoin whitepaper (for his work on Hashcash). As CEO of Blockstream, he provides insights from the perspective of someone who has been in cryptography and digital cash since before Bitcoin existed.
Historical Significance
- • Invented Hashcash (cited in Bitcoin whitepaper)
- • Early cypherpunk movement participant
- • CEO of Blockstream (Bitcoin infrastructure)
- • Liquid Network development
On-Chain Analysis Platforms
These platforms aggregate blockchain data and provide the metrics that analysts use. Many offer free tiers with limited access to professional-grade on-chain data.
Glassnode
The industry standard for on-chain analytics. Glassnode provides hundreds of metrics covering market indicators, supply distribution, miner behaviour, and more.
glassnode.com →Coin Metrics
Institutional-grade crypto data provider. Known for rigorous methodology and comprehensive network data across multiple blockchains.
coinmetrics.io →CryptoQuant
Popular for exchange flow data and market alerts. Their "Quicktake" feature allows analysts to share insights directly on the platform.
cryptoquant.com →Santiment
Combines on-chain data with social media sentiment analysis. Useful for understanding market psychology alongside blockchain fundamentals.
santiment.net →Key On-Chain Metrics to Understand
Before diving into analyst commentary, it helps to understand the basic metrics they reference. Here are some of the most important:
MVRV Ratio
Market Value to Realized Value. Compares Bitcoin's market cap to the "realized" value (the price at which each coin last moved). High MVRV suggests the market is overheated; low MVRV suggests undervaluation.
Used for: Identifying market tops and bottoms
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Measures whether coins being spent are in profit or loss. SOPR > 1 means average profit taking; SOPR < 1 means coins are being sold at a loss.
Used for: Gauging market sentiment and capitulation
Exchange Flows
Tracks Bitcoin moving to and from exchanges. Large inflows often precede selling; outflows suggest accumulation (moving to cold storage).
Used for: Predicting short-term price movements
HODL Waves
Visualises the age distribution of all Bitcoin. Shows how much Bitcoin hasn't moved in various time periods (1 week, 1 month, 1 year, etc.).
Used for: Understanding long-term holder behaviour
NVT Ratio
Network Value to Transactions. Similar to a P/E ratio for stocks. Compares market cap to transaction volume. High NVT may indicate overvaluation.
Used for: Long-term valuation assessment
How to Use Analyst Insights Responsibly
⚠️ Important Disclaimers
- • Not financial advice: On-chain analysis is one tool among many. No analyst can predict the future.
- • Models can fail: Even respected models like S2F have faced significant deviations. Use them as guides, not gospel.
- • Bias exists: Many analysts hold Bitcoin and may have unconscious bias toward bullish interpretations.
- • Past performance: Historical accuracy doesn't guarantee future results.
✅ Good Practices
- • Follow multiple analysts with different approaches
- • Learn to read the raw data yourself
- • Consider timeframes (short vs. long-term)
- • Cross-reference with other analysis methods
- • Only invest what you can afford to lose
❌ Avoid
- • Treating any model as certainty
- • Following only bullish analysts
- • Making trades based on single metrics
- • Ignoring macro factors
- • Using leverage based on on-chain data
